WDW Daily Recap: Saturday, April 11
Excellent day for the model — predictions were tight across all four parks. Here's how our WTI predictions compared to what actually happened at Walt Disney World on Saturday, April 11.
Park-by-Park: Predicted vs. Observed WTI
| Park | Predicted | Observed | Delta | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic Kingdom | 19.0 | 16.7 | -2.3 | Close |
| EPCOT | 22.4 | 23.6 | +1.2 | Nailed it |
| Hollywood Studios | 27.7 | 24.2 | -3.5 | Close |
| Animal Kingdom | 33.5 | 32.8 | -0.7 | Nailed it |
Overall MAE: 1.9 — the average absolute error across all four parks.
Spotlight: Hollywood Studios
Hollywood Studios was the biggest miss of the day. We predicted a WTI of 27.7, but the observed value came in at 24.2 — 3.5 points lighter than expected.
The error was distributed across multiple attractions, with no single ride dominating the miss.
Attraction-Level Breakdown
| Attraction | Predicted | Actual | Error | MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rise of Resistance | 33 | 45 | +11.3 | 17.0 |
| Toy Story Mania! | 47 | 32 | -15.7 | 15.9 |
| Tower of Terror | 32 | 39 | +6.8 | 11.5 |
| Rise of the Resistance Single | 3 | 12 | +9.5 | 9.5 |
| Millennium Falcon Single Rider | 3 | 12 | +9.5 | 9.5 |
| Runaway Railway | 28 | 34 | +6.4 | 9.5 |
| Star Tours | 15 | 7 | -7.9 | 7.9 |
| Millennium Falcon | 36 | 32 | -4.2 | 7.9 |
Detected Closures / Downtime at Hollywood Studios
These rides had gaps of 60+ minutes in posted wait times during operating hours, suggesting temporary closures or extended downtime:
- Rise of the Resistance Single — no data from 9:23 AM to 10:35 AM (72 min gap)
- Rise of Resistance — no data from 9:23 AM to 10:30 AM (67 min gap)
Get daily WTI forecasts for all 12 parks. Just type /today or /crowd in the Discord — free during beta.
📡 Data Sources — Our models are trained on data from TouringPlans, Queue-Times, and Thrill-Data. The models, techniques, and predictions are entirely our own.