WDW Daily Recap: Wednesday, April 15
Mixed results. The model got some parks right but missed on others. Here's how our WTI predictions compared to what actually happened at Walt Disney World on Wednesday, April 15.
Park-by-Park: Predicted vs. Observed WTI
| Park | Predicted | Observed | Delta | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic Kingdom | 17.9 | 15.3 | -2.6 | Close |
| EPCOT | 20.9 | 18.4 | -2.5 | Close |
| Hollywood Studios | 26.7 | 17.4 | -9.3 | Missed |
| Animal Kingdom | 33.3 | 19.9 | -13.4 | Big miss |
Overall MAE: 7.0 — the average absolute error across all four parks.
Spotlight: Animal Kingdom
Animal Kingdom was the biggest miss of the day. We predicted a WTI of 33.3, but the observed value came in at 19.9 — 13.4 points lighter than expected.
The error was top-heavy — three attractions drove most of the miss: Na'vi River (MAE 30.9), Flight of Passage (MAE 23.6), Kilimanjaro Safaris (MAE 16.5).
Attraction-Level Breakdown
| Attraction | Predicted | Actual | Error | MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Na'vi River | 55 | 24 | -30.9 | 30.9 |
| Flight of Passage | 55 | 32 | -23.5 | 23.6 |
| Kilimanjaro Safaris | 30 | 15 | -15.7 | 16.5 |
| Expedition Everest | 19 | 9 | -10.0 | 10.1 |
| Kali River Rapids | 28 | 22 | -6.4 | 9.4 |
| Zootopia | 12 | 8 | -4.5 | 4.5 |
| Adventurers Outpost | 18 | 19 | +1.6 | 3.8 |
| Gorilla Falls Trail | 5 | 6 | +1.0 | 1.0 |
Detected Closures / Downtime at Animal Kingdom
These rides had gaps of 60+ minutes in posted wait times during operating hours, suggesting temporary closures or extended downtime:
- Character Landing — no data from 12:15 PM to 1:50 PM (95 min gap)
- Kali River Rapids — no data from 10:20 AM to 11:21 AM (61 min gap)
Get daily WTI forecasts for all 12 parks. Just type /today or /crowd in the Discord — free during beta.
📡 Data Sources — Our models are trained on data from TouringPlans, Queue-Times, and Thrill-Data. The models, techniques, and predictions are entirely our own.