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WDW Daily Recap: Wednesday, April 15

Mixed results. The model got some parks right but missed on others. Here's how our WTI predictions compared to what actually happened at Walt Disney World on Wednesday, April 15.

Park-by-Park: Predicted vs. Observed WTI

Park Predicted Observed Delta Verdict
Magic Kingdom 17.9 15.3 -2.6 Close
EPCOT 20.9 18.4 -2.5 Close
Hollywood Studios 26.7 17.4 -9.3 Missed
Animal Kingdom 33.3 19.9 -13.4 Big miss

Overall MAE: 7.0 — the average absolute error across all four parks.

Spotlight: Animal Kingdom

Animal Kingdom was the biggest miss of the day. We predicted a WTI of 33.3, but the observed value came in at 19.9 — 13.4 points lighter than expected.

The error was top-heavy — three attractions drove most of the miss: Na'vi River (MAE 30.9), Flight of Passage (MAE 23.6), Kilimanjaro Safaris (MAE 16.5).

Attraction-Level Breakdown

Attraction Predicted Actual Error MAE
Na'vi River 55 24 -30.9 30.9
Flight of Passage 55 32 -23.5 23.6
Kilimanjaro Safaris 30 15 -15.7 16.5
Expedition Everest 19 9 -10.0 10.1
Kali River Rapids 28 22 -6.4 9.4
Zootopia 12 8 -4.5 4.5
Adventurers Outpost 18 19 +1.6 3.8
Gorilla Falls Trail 5 6 +1.0 1.0

Detected Closures / Downtime at Animal Kingdom

These rides had gaps of 60+ minutes in posted wait times during operating hours, suggesting temporary closures or extended downtime:

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📡 Data Sources — Our models are trained on data from TouringPlans, Queue-Times, and Thrill-Data. The models, techniques, and predictions are entirely our own.

Generated by the Theme Park Crowd Report team — data-driven crowd forecasts for 12 parks across Walt Disney World, Universal Orlando, and more.