WDW Daily Recap: Thursday, April 16
Mixed results. The model got some parks right but missed on others. Here's how our WTI predictions compared to what actually happened at Walt Disney World on Thursday, April 16.
Park-by-Park: Predicted vs. Observed WTI
| Park | Predicted | Observed | Delta | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic Kingdom | 18.7 | 13.1 | -5.6 | Missed |
| EPCOT | 22.0 | 16.9 | -5.1 | Missed |
| Hollywood Studios | 26.7 | 18.2 | -8.5 | Missed |
| Animal Kingdom | 33.5 | 20.2 | -13.3 | Big miss |
Overall MAE: 8.1 — the average absolute error across all four parks.
Spotlight: Animal Kingdom
Animal Kingdom was the biggest miss of the day. We predicted a WTI of 33.5, but the observed value came in at 20.2 — 13.3 points lighter than expected.
The error was top-heavy — three attractions drove most of the miss: Na'vi River (MAE 32.3), Flight of Passage (MAE 22.5), Kilimanjaro Safaris (MAE 13.0).
Attraction-Level Breakdown
| Attraction | Predicted | Actual | Error | MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Na'vi River | 55 | 23 | -32.3 | 32.3 |
| Flight of Passage | 55 | 33 | -22.3 | 22.5 |
| Kilimanjaro Safaris | 29 | 17 | -12.5 | 13.0 |
| Kali River Rapids | 28 | 18 | -9.6 | 9.6 |
| Expedition Everest | 20 | 12 | -8.0 | 8.1 |
| Adventurers Outpost | 17 | 19 | +2.3 | 3.9 |
| Zootopia | 12 | 9 | -3.3 | 3.5 |
| Gorilla Falls Trail | 5 | 6 | +1.0 | 1.0 |
Detected Closures / Downtime at Animal Kingdom
These rides had gaps of 60+ minutes in posted wait times during operating hours, suggesting temporary closures or extended downtime:
- Character Landing — no data from 12:15 PM to 1:50 PM (95 min gap)
Get daily WTI forecasts for all 12 parks. Just type /today or /crowd in the Discord — free during beta.
📡 Data Sources — Our models are trained on data from TouringPlans, Queue-Times, and Thrill-Data. The models, techniques, and predictions are entirely our own.