WDW Daily Recap: Thursday, April 23
Solid day overall. Most parks tracked well, with one outlier pulling the average. Here's how our WTI predictions compared to what actually happened at Walt Disney World on Thursday, April 23.
Park-by-Park: Predicted vs. Observed WTI
| Park | Predicted | Observed | Delta | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic Kingdom | 17.9 | 15.3 | -2.6 | Close |
| EPCOT | 20.6 | 20.5 | -0.1 | Nailed it |
| Hollywood Studios | 26.6 | 21.1 | -5.5 | Missed |
| Animal Kingdom | 34.1 | 25.5 | -8.6 | Missed |
Overall MAE: 4.2 — the average absolute error across all four parks.
Spotlight: Animal Kingdom
Animal Kingdom was the biggest miss of the day. We predicted a WTI of 34.1, but the observed value came in at 25.5 — 8.6 points lighter than expected.
The error was top-heavy — three attractions drove most of the miss: Na'vi River (MAE 26.3), Flight of Passage (MAE 18.1), Kilimanjaro Safaris (MAE 12.2).
Attraction-Level Breakdown
| Attraction | Predicted | Actual | Error | MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Na'vi River | 55 | 29 | -26.3 | 26.3 |
| Flight of Passage | 55 | 39 | -16.0 | 18.1 |
| Kilimanjaro Safaris | 30 | 21 | -9.6 | 12.2 |
| Expedition Everest | 22 | 17 | -4.4 | 6.4 |
| Kali River Rapids | 28 | 26 | -2.8 | 5.5 |
| Adventurers Outpost | 17 | 20 | +3.6 | 5.4 |
| Zootopia | 13 | 9 | -3.3 | 3.9 |
| Gorilla Falls Trail | 5 | 5 | +0.1 | 0.2 |
Detected Closures / Downtime at Animal Kingdom
These rides had gaps of 60+ minutes in posted wait times during operating hours, suggesting temporary closures or extended downtime:
- Expedition Everest — no data from 1:44 PM to 3:31 PM (106 min gap)
- Character Landing — no data from 12:10 PM to 1:55 PM (105 min gap)
Get daily WTI forecasts for all 12 parks. Just type /today or /crowd in the Discord — free during beta.
📡 Data Sources — Our models are trained on data from TouringPlans, Queue-Times, and Thrill-Data. The models, techniques, and predictions are entirely our own.