WDW Daily Recap: Monday, May 4
Excellent day for the model — predictions were tight across all four parks. Here's how our WTI predictions compared to what actually happened at Walt Disney World on Monday, May 4.
Park-by-Park: Predicted vs. Observed WTI
| Park | Predicted | Observed | Delta | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic Kingdom | 20.3 | 17.4 | -2.9 | Close |
| EPCOT | 24.3 | 22.8 | -1.5 | Nailed it |
| Hollywood Studios | 30.3 | 26.8 | -3.5 | Close |
| Animal Kingdom | 38.6 | 34.7 | -3.9 | Close |
Overall MAE: 3.0 — the average absolute error across all four parks.
Spotlight: Animal Kingdom
Animal Kingdom was the biggest miss of the day. We predicted a WTI of 38.6, but the observed value came in at 34.7 — 3.9 points lighter than expected.
The error was concentrated in one attraction: Na'vi River (MAE 51.6), which drove most of the park-level miss.
Attraction-Level Breakdown
| Attraction | Predicted | Actual | Error | MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Na'vi River | 86 | 34 | -51.6 | 51.6 |
| Flight of Passage | 54 | 60 | +5.7 | 12.6 |
| Kali River Rapids | 27 | 38 | +11.8 | 12.3 |
| Kilimanjaro Safaris | 28 | 28 | -0.3 | 9.0 |
| Adventurers Outpost | 18 | 26 | +8.1 | 8.2 |
| Expedition Everest | 24 | 24 | +1.0 | 5.3 |
| Zootopia | 16 | 12 | -3.4 | 3.6 |
| Gorilla Falls Trail | 5 | 6 | +0.9 | 0.9 |
Detected Closures / Downtime at Animal Kingdom
These rides had gaps of 60+ minutes in posted wait times during operating hours, suggesting temporary closures or extended downtime:
- Character Landing — no data from 12:15 PM to 1:55 PM (100 min gap)
Get daily WTI forecasts for all 12 parks. Just type /today or /crowd in the Discord — free during beta.
📡 Data Sources — Our models are trained on data from TouringPlans, Queue-Times, and Thrill-Data. The models, techniques, and predictions are entirely our own.