WDW Daily Recap: Thursday, May 14
Solid day overall. Most parks tracked well, with one outlier pulling the average. Here's how our WTI predictions compared to what actually happened at Walt Disney World on Thursday, May 14.
Park-by-Park: Predicted vs. Observed WTI
| Park | Predicted | Observed | Delta | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic Kingdom | 20.5 | 18.2 | -2.3 | Close |
| EPCOT | 22.3 | 20.2 | -2.1 | Close |
| Hollywood Studios | 26.5 | 19.8 | -6.7 | Missed |
| Animal Kingdom | 38.6 | 27.4 | -11.2 | Big miss |
Overall MAE: 5.6 — the average absolute error across all four parks.
Spotlight: Animal Kingdom
Animal Kingdom was the biggest miss of the day. We predicted a WTI of 38.6, but the observed value came in at 27.4 — 11.2 points lighter than expected.
The error was concentrated in one attraction: Na'vi River (MAE 60.8), which drove most of the park-level miss.
Attraction-Level Breakdown
| Attraction | Predicted | Actual | Error | MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Na'vi River | 86 | 25 | -60.8 | 60.8 |
| Flight of Passage | 56 | 49 | -6.8 | 15.6 |
| Kilimanjaro Safaris | 29 | 23 | -5.6 | 12.2 |
| Kali River Rapids | 26 | 30 | +3.7 | 10.8 |
| Expedition Everest | 23 | 14 | -8.4 | 9.0 |
| Adventurers Outpost | 15 | 22 | +7.0 | 7.8 |
| Zootopia | 16 | 9 | -7.0 | 7.1 |
| Gorilla Falls Trail | 5 | 6 | +1.2 | 1.2 |
Detected Closures / Downtime at Animal Kingdom
These rides had gaps of 60+ minutes in posted wait times during operating hours, suggesting temporary closures or extended downtime:
- Flight of Passage — no data from 1:42 PM to 4:07 PM (146 min gap)
- Character Landing — no data from 12:10 PM to 1:55 PM (105 min gap)
- Kali River Rapids — no data from 10:51 AM to 12:08 PM (76 min gap)
- Kali River Rapids — no data from 12:27 PM to 1:34 PM (67 min gap)
Get daily WTI forecasts for all 12 parks. Just type /today or /crowd in the Discord — free during beta.
📡 Data Sources — Our models are trained on data from TouringPlans, Queue-Times, and Thrill-Data. The models, techniques, and predictions are entirely our own.