WDW Daily Recap: Friday, May 15
Mixed results. The model got some parks right but missed on others. Here's how our WTI predictions compared to what actually happened at Walt Disney World on Friday, May 15.
Park-by-Park: Predicted vs. Observed WTI
| Park | Predicted | Observed | Delta | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic Kingdom | 20.3 | 15.6 | -4.7 | Close |
| EPCOT | 22.3 | 19.0 | -3.3 | Close |
| Hollywood Studios | 28.7 | 14.9 | -13.8 | Big miss |
| Animal Kingdom | 38.4 | 22.4 | -16.0 | Big miss |
Overall MAE: 9.4 — the average absolute error across all four parks.
Spotlight: Animal Kingdom
Animal Kingdom was the biggest miss of the day. We predicted a WTI of 38.4, but the observed value came in at 22.4 — 16.0 points lighter than expected.
The error was concentrated in one attraction: Na'vi River (MAE 60.7), which drove most of the park-level miss.
Attraction-Level Breakdown
| Attraction | Predicted | Actual | Error | MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Na'vi River | 87 | 26 | -60.7 | 60.7 |
| Flight of Passage | 56 | 38 | -17.8 | 18.9 |
| Kilimanjaro Safaris | 29 | 21 | -8.0 | 13.0 |
| Expedition Everest | 23 | 13 | -10.1 | 10.3 |
| Zootopia | 16 | 9 | -7.5 | 7.6 |
| Kali River Rapids | 27 | 22 | -4.8 | 6.1 |
| Adventurers Outpost | 15 | 20 | +4.3 | 5.1 |
| Gorilla Falls Trail | 5 | 5 | +0.0 | 0.2 |
Detected Closures / Downtime at Animal Kingdom
These rides had gaps of 60+ minutes in posted wait times during operating hours, suggesting temporary closures or extended downtime:
- Character Landing — no data from 12:10 PM to 1:55 PM (105 min gap)
Get daily WTI forecasts for all 12 parks. Just type /today or /crowd in the Discord — free during beta.
📡 Data Sources — Our models are trained on data from TouringPlans, Queue-Times, and Thrill-Data. The models, techniques, and predictions are entirely our own.