WDW Daily Recap: Tuesday, June 16
Tough day for predictions. Multiple parks deviated significantly from forecasts. Here's how our WTI predictions compared to what actually happened at Walt Disney World on Tuesday, June 16.
Park-by-Park: Predicted vs. Observed WTI
| Park | Predicted | Observed | Delta | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic Kingdom | 22.0 | 13.9 | -8.1 | Missed |
| EPCOT | 24.6 | 18.1 | -6.5 | Missed |
| Hollywood Studios | 30.6 | 20.2 | -10.4 | Big miss |
| Animal Kingdom | 39.6 | 19.3 | -20.3 | Big miss |
Overall MAE: 11.3 — the average absolute error across all four parks.
Spotlight: Animal Kingdom
Animal Kingdom was the biggest miss of the day. We predicted a WTI of 39.6, but the observed value came in at 19.3 — 20.3 points lighter than expected.
The error was concentrated in one attraction: Na'vi River (MAE 66.6), which drove most of the park-level miss.
Attraction-Level Breakdown
| Attraction | Predicted | Actual | Error | MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Na'vi River | 89 | 22 | -66.6 | 66.6 |
| Flight of Passage | 55 | 30 | -25.0 | 25.0 |
| Kilimanjaro Safaris | 28 | 14 | -13.7 | 14.2 |
| Expedition Everest | 24 | 14 | -9.7 | 10.7 |
| Zootopia | 16 | 9 | -6.4 | 6.5 |
| Kali River Rapids | 26 | 22 | -3.5 | 5.5 |
| Adventurers Outpost | 16 | 16 | +0.5 | 5.1 |
| Wildlife Train: Africa | 6 | 6 | -0.3 | 1.6 |
Detected Closures / Downtime at Animal Kingdom
These rides had gaps of 60+ minutes in posted wait times during operating hours, suggesting temporary closures or extended downtime:
- Character Landing — no data from 12:10 PM to 1:50 PM (100 min gap)
- Expedition Everest — no data from 3:40 PM to 4:57 PM (77 min gap)
- Expedition Everest — no data from 5:54 PM to 6:55 PM (62 min gap)
Get daily WTI forecasts for all 12 parks. Just type /today or /crowd in the Discord — free during beta.
📡 Data Sources — Our models are trained on data from TouringPlans, Queue-Times, and Thrill-Data. The models, techniques, and predictions are entirely our own.